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What Investors Should Watch as Brexit Talks Heat Up

By Advisor Perspectives
Capital Markets, Financial Services

As we enter another period of accelerated Brexit negotiations, how can investors best navigate the next few weeks and months? Our assessment is that a number of U.K. assets have already priced in a significant chance of a disruptive Brexit, but there is scope for further moves in either direction, depending on the path the negotiations take.

Base case: Cooperative outcome to Brexit talks

Our base assumption is for a cooperative outcome to the current negotiations, such that both the U.K. and European Union (EU) can sign the transition deal extending the negotiations out to December 2020. We see incentives for both sides to agree to the transition: For the EU, it would ensure that the U.K. contributes to the EU budget until the end of the current fiscal period in December 2020; for the U.K., it would assuage the risk of a disruptive separation in just five months’ time, an event for which the economy would unlikely be fully prepared. Indeed, we see a greater risk for a disruptive Brexit at the December 2020 deadline than the current March 2019 deadline. That said, we consider it prudent risk management to think through all eventualities.

Read more at Advisor Perspectives.

Photo: Bankenverband

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