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What to Do With China: Part I
Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position. He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and Athens, as his model for superpower competition.1 Over the past few
U.S. Charges Huawei With Stealing Trade Secrets and Attempting to Evade Sanctions on Iran
The United States Justice Department and acting Attorney General Matthew G. Whitaker unveiled a 13-count indictment against the Chinese telecom giant Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, charging the company  with bank fraud , wire fraud and attempting to evade sanctions on Iran and more. In one indictment, which was returned by a grand jury on Jan. 16,
Income Fund Update: Building Resiliency in Volatile Markets
SUMMARY During the fourth quarter of 2018, high quality assets were the key drivers of the Income Fund and helped preserve capital for investors. Because we think the markets will remain volatile in the year ahead, the Income Fund is defensively positioned overall but will aim to use any market dislocations to go on offense. With high volatility in corporate
Report: Facebook To Unite Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram
Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to upgrade privacy measures and combine the infrastructure of the firm’s three messaging platforms, according to a Friday report by The New York Times. “We’re working on making more of our messaging products end-to-end encrypted and considering ways to make it easier to reach friends and family across networks,” Facebook said in a
Brexit and Beyond: Investing in Europe amid Political Risk
With Brexit headlines dominating the European news, equity investors face an ongoing challenge. Building resilient portfolios requires a clear view of the long-term outlook for European companies that also reflects major short-term political uncertainties. Political risk has been a feature in European markets for years. Lately, from Italy’s fiscal squabbles to turmoil in the streets of France, it feels like
Microsoft Prez: After 2018's Data Scandals, a 'Tech Lash' Will Forever Change the Industry
Following a year in which the largest social media company in the world came under increased regulatory scrutiny about how it protects user data, Microsoft President Brad Smith believes that a backlash - or "tech lash" - against the way internet companies handle data will forever alter the tech industry. Specifically, Smith believes steps will - or should - be
Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived?
China has been on the verge of a hard landing for many years, according to some analysts. Will they finally be right in 2019? In this issue of Sinology, I explain that in the fourth quarter of 2018, China's economic deceleration was not significantly sharper than I expected, and several policy changes should lead to stronger activity and market sentiment
Google Fined $57M, Becoming First Big Tech Company to Run Afoul of EU's New Data Privacy Laws
Of all the firsts it's achieved as the world's most powerful search engine, Google could probably do without this one: It is now the first big tech company to run afoul of the European Union's new General Data Protection Regulation. France's National Data Protection Commission, which is responsible for enforcing the EU's GDPR laws, announced on Jan. 21 that it
Are Global Stocks Divorced from Reality?
Equities declined around the world in 2018, and valuations fell sharply. The risks are clearly significant—but have stocks fallen too far? With earnings still expected to advance this year, we think selective investors can find attractive entry points. Reality can be subjective. For many investors in stocks, last year’s pain was real, as returns fell sharply due to the escalating
How Not to Ruin Your First Exit
I’m not sure when I first knew the startup I invested in last year was doomed. Maybe it was when they stopped fundraising efforts a month out from their goal, overly confident that one big investor was going to come through in the clutch. Maybe it was when they came to me for more money when that didn’t work out.